South Africa's Ramaphosa leads ANC nominations but not assured of victory

South Africa’s deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa got majority of nominations to become leader of the ruling African National Congress.

But the complexity of the leadership race means it’s far from certain he will become the next party leader and therefore the likely next president.

Ramaphosa won around 55 percent of nominations from the party branches that will send delegates to an ANC conference this month.

His main rival, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, got most of the rest, according to a Reuters tally.

A majority of nominations, however, is not the same as the most votes at the conference, which analysts say is a two-horse race between Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma, a former cabinet minister and ex-wife of President Jacob Zuma.

The ANC’s electoral dominance means whoever wins the party’s top job is likely become the next president of South Africa.

Ramaphosa is considered the most market-friendly candidate, and signs his campaign is doing well have driven a rally in South African assets in recent weeks. But determining who will become ANC leader is still an inexact science.

Depending on the size of their membership, ANC branches from the country’s nine provinces will send different numbers of delegates to the conference, which opens on December 16, Each branch gets one delegate for its first 100 members, with another delegate added for every additional 250 members.